So let’s talk about Ike. Here are some facts (c/o Wikipedia):

• Ike was the largest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin.
• Ike was the third most destructive hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.
• While only a Category 2 storm, Ike made landfall with a Category 5 storm surge.

I spent the night alone when Ike hit. Part of that was my silly attempt to protect my home. My roommate was out of town when the storm hit, and I just didn’t want the house left empty for the storm. I’ll tell you this, I’ll NEVER do that again. To sit through a hurricane is a scary, anxiety-ridden experience. I’m not ashamed to say my head was a little bent afterward. And, here’s the thing, I had it relatively easy compared to most of Houston. I had my power back , miraculously, within 48 hours. Some Houstonians did not get their power back for over a month. A lot of people blamed the above-ground power lines. I’ll tell you that is a bunch of bunk. My parents were without power for two weeks. They live in Sugar Land, where the power lines are all buried.
I would like to spend the rest of this post discussing the power outage. It was in this power outage, that we saw the greatest side of Houston after the storm. Neighbors banded together, helping out where they could. Albeit dangerous, extension cords crisscrossed the streets as those with power shared with those who didn’t. Impromptu block parties were happening across the city. In my neighborhood, we held nightly diversions in the homes with power to give those without a chance to remember was real A/C felt like. And it could have been much worse if not for a well timed cool front blew through the day after Ike hit. I shudder to think what this city would have been like if we had to suffer through the typical September heat.

I remarked to someone after Ike, in the conversation that spurred this series of posts, that a lot of people simply forgot why they didn’t like Houston anymore. As usual, the country outside Houston did not notice the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, nor did they give it much thought. After Allison and Katrina and, frankly, we weren’t surprised. But we didn’t waste time feeling sorry for ourselves, we simply moved on.

Hurricane Ike was a devastating blow to the city of Houston. Any city would have struggled after a storm of this caliber. However, for Houston it was a wake-up call for a lot of people who hadn’t yet realized how lucky they were to live here. We made it through the storm closer as a community, and realized there isn’t a lot we can’t handle as Houstonians.

Our first named storm (in the Atlantic) is Alex. I’m going to go ahead and make Alex a guy. Houston hasn’t had great luck with female-named storms starting with Al- (Hurricane Alicia and Tropical Storm Allison, anyone?) in the past. There is, of course, a new wrinkle in this year’s hurricane season, the BP Oil Spill. It’s not clear to me how badly a hurricane in the Gulf would affect the oil spill. One thing for sure, however, is the media is doing their best to cheer on that particular event.

I haven’t read anything to indicate Alex is going to pose a threat to the oil spill area, but you wouldn’t think that was the case watching the national news. Local news outlets are bad enough when hurricane season comes around, it’s 10 times worse when the national media gets involved. I was watching MSNBC this morning, and after they had shown a projection that had Alex going nowhere near the spill, the talking head in the studio mentioned ‘some outlying computer models’ that do indicate Big Al could turn towards the spill, and make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border.

Of course, this is entirely possible because, let’s face it, the scientific community is much more ignorant about the paths of storms than they are willing to admit. Still, I can’t recall a hurricane going so totally against the grain of a majority of the computer models available. Below is the latest computer model projections from Weather Underground’s Tropical Weather Center.

The GFS model is the one the local media is going to be most interested in. Granted, the models have been trending northward over the past 48 hours, but Mexico remains the betting man’s target for now. I’m not terribly worried for the oil spill or Houston at this point, nor should you. Let’s not allow the media to change that, shall we?

One important thing to remember, I read reports back in the Spring that we were looking at a very hot and dry summer. After the past week, and looking at this week’s forecast, I’d say listening to local media is shaky. Stick with the folks at Weather Underground.

However, before we get to that, let’s discuss some final thoughts about Gustav; the “mother of all storms.” Yeah, not so much. Still, Gustav is a perfect for understanding everything you’d need to know about a hurricane:

1. You’ll never really know where the storm is going until it gets there.
2. The storm of the century can become a piddling nuisance in less than 24 hours.
3. As long as you’re in the “Cone of Uncertainty”, it’s okay to pay attention to what’s going on.

Think of hurricanes like the Presidential Election. It’s not always something you want to think or talk about, but it’s incredibly important to stay informed.

So let’s talk about Ike. He’s got a nice trip to Cuba planned. And, by most assessments, looks like he’s going to take in the whole island. He is then supposed to jog into the Gulf of Mexico where things get a little fuzzy. The whole thing with Gustav had us in the projected path, but the most reliable computer models had it moving towards its ultimate destination, the western coast of Louisiana.

Now the problem is that those same models are showing a Ike to head towards the Texas Gulf Coast with a possible landfall Friday night or Saturday morning. Of course, that’ll be different tomorrow, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

In other words, here we go again . . .

Like the one word you’re going to hear in the next couple of days, and you must hope and pray Gustav doesn’t do is wiggle. A ‘wiggle’ is a small shake in the path of a hurricane. This kind of behavior is one of the main reasons that hurricanes are so freakin’ hard to predict. Depending on where you look for information on hurricanes, they could be following at least 16 different computer models. SIXTEEN! And, if you’ve seen them, they tend to pick 16 different paths. Right now they are predicting landfall in Louisiana because the most reliable computer models this season are predicting that path. This doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen, it just means that it’s likely. Personally, I follow Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com), and consider it to be one of the best resources. I tend to stay away from local coverage because well, it tends to go WAY overboard. It’s not their fault really, paranoia leads to more people turning on televisions. More people watching the local news means higher ratings. Higher ratings lead to more ad dollars. Yes, there is a case to be made for responsible journalism, but local and national news sources are businesses that have to make money. Wundergroun is great because it doesn’t have a local interest. Oh, and avoid the SciGuy over at the Chronicle; he is simply too quick to raise the alarm. WAY TOO QUICK!

So what is the story on Gustav? Well, I’m expecting him to enter the canon of some of the greatest storms in hurricane lore. Andrew, Hugo, Katrina, Carla, the list is fairly legendary. There is not likely to be another Gustav, and he will leave a very real mark wherever he hits. Right now, it appears that he will hit land as a Category 4 storm. That’s one step up from Katrina and Alicia, the last major hurricane to strike the Houston area. The main issue to consider is that hurricanes are exponentially dangerous as you start bumping up that scale. Alicia was probably a strong 2 when he finally got to Houston. Again, we have a nice little speed bump for any storm, but Gustav is going to represent a serious problem if he strikes land as a category 4 or 5. Still, all current projections show that he will be a strong 4 when he hits land.

It’s actually a good thing that he is going to be hitting 5 status so far out in the Gulf. The one thing I learned about hurricanes during Rita was that hurricanes cannot maintain their strength once they get into the Cat 4 and 5 range. Simply put, they blow themselves out. Rita was the strongest storm in recorded history, but weakened considerably before it hit land despite taking a strong stroll through the warm Gulf waters in 2005. They are expecting Gustav to hit Cat 5 Status while it is over Cuba this evening then dropping back down to a 4 sometime Monday morning. I’d also point out though that this storm wasn’t supposed to hit Category 5, much less 4, status a couple of days ago.

Wait, I totally jumped track from the whole wiggle issue. Because of the projected path of the storm, we are still in, what has become the grandaddy of all hurricane cliches, the cone of uncertainty. DUH-DUH-DUH! If Gustav wiggles it, just a little bit, well, it might be time to start thinking about how you are getting the hell out of dodge.

Okay, so let’s talk turkey. What should you be doing right now?

1. Have fun.
These are fun times on the Gulf Coast. I don’t mean to trivialize the seriousness of this event. There are people evacuating along parts of the entire Gulf Coast as I write this. A major hurricane is always going to be equal parts fear and schadenfreude. For every person that flees a storm, there is another hoisting a alcoholic beverage in defiance.

2. Do NOT, under ANY circumstances, underestimate this storm.
While terribly cliche, the Cone of Uncertainty is still a very accurate statement. While it does not appear that Gustav will hit Houston directly, it is still very much a possibility. By tomorrow afternoon/evening or Monday morning, we should know for certain what this storm is going to do. I am hopeful that the projections haven’t swayed from Louisiana over the past few days, but I am not thrilled that a storm that wasn’t supposed to get stronger than a Category 3 two days ago is going to reach Cat 5 status tonight. A LOT can change in the next 48 hours, please do not forget that.

3. Walk, don’t run.
This is all conjecture, but important. If, and that’s a big IF, Gustav decides Houston is a better spot to visit, you may or may not need to evacuate. In any case, he’s going to be a serious storm, and it is going to be very dangerous. However, I am not evacuating further than Sugar Land. Galveston and the 50-60 miles of land between the coast and us is going to knock a lot of the smack of Gustav, regardless of how strong he is. Again, it’s still going to mean a pretty scary 24 hours, but you might get the chance to see one of the most unnerving and magical parts of a hurricane, the Eye of the storm. Imagine all hell breaking loose around you, only to have it get startling calm and serene. You walk outside, and it’s clear outside. The sun is shining, the birds are chirping. Your house, the trees, creak because they have just been put through an intense test of their strength and durability. It’s really an amazing moment. I still remember the Eye of Alicia. However, when you go out into the eye, be mindful getting back inside before the rest of the storm hits. It is at the Eye Wall that you see the sheer power of a hurricane. Therefore it is the calmest and most dangerous part of the storm.

If you’re south and east of Houston, you really need to start thinking about moving to a better location. If you are west and north, you need to seriously consider staying home, but prepare yourself. Kroger is on full alert with plenty of water and supplies. It would not be a bad idea to stock up today or tomorrow. Also, it’s probably a good idea to fill your gas tank. Prices, regardless if it comes here or not, are going to rise in the next few days. Protect yourself, and save some money on your next fill-up. It will be more expensive later in the week.

In the end, be smart, and stay informed. There is no shame in being concerned or vigilant for the next 72 hours.

In that time, I have only experienced one legitimate hurricane, Alicia. In fact, Houston doesn’t REALLY have a lot of hurricane lore that you can hold onto. Most of the stories you hear are about hurricanes (1900, Carla, Katrina, Rita) that never even hit Houston.

I’ve been thinking these past few days how interesting Hurricane Culture is here in Houston. I mean, look at any particular area in the country. In California, there is something about earthquakes, and the locals all have their own personal anecdotes and feelings. Move into the Midwest, and the notions of farming and tornadoes will be the fun topic. Or maybe you want to go all the way up north to the chilly fields of Minnesota. “Hey Carl, it’s gonna be a cold one tonight, eh? Grab me a SO-da why dontcha?”

There are a few constants when it comes to hurricanes in Houston.

1. Wet Reporters
There is always a mass panic that is actively egged on by local media. You know some reporter is going to be outside wearing a windbreaker and a ballcap with the stations logo emblazoned across the front. They will be squinting their eyes as they are lashed by wind and rain. I saw ol’ Wayne Dulcefino doing that today. Oh, and don’t forget when they pan out to show you how windy it is, and how the rain is blowing this way and that. Wayne even parked his car near the tallest building he could find to brace the satellite truck from the terrible wind.

2. Stalled vehicles
This is like one of those comedy bits that never seems to get old. I mean, it’s not just a hurricane that causes flooding in these parts. We see a good flood about once a year. It’s nothing new, it’s a regular thing. I’m not even going to say anything about what you should do, because you already know that by now. You do, right? Nevertheless, there will be a slew of nimrods who plow their two-door sedans right into a body of water, only to have the car stall out in the middle. They then have to get out of the flooded car, and wade to the shore where, inevitably, there is a reporter waiting to ask, “Why did you do it?” You can’t write shit that good. I mean, you just can’t! And it never fails. Watch the evening news tonight, you’ll see it. I guarantee it!

3. Naysayers
For every one person that shows the slightest bit of alarm about the storm, there are ten more that will scoff at the notion; being sure to invoke the name of some other storm from the past. “I remember when Alicia hit . . .” My favorite has always been, “Oh, it’s just a tropical storm.” Or, even better, “Oh, it’s just a Category 1.” Guess what, bullets are just pieces of metal until you get hit by one.

4. Hurricane Parties
Definitely my favorite part of the whole celebration. If there isn’t going to be an evacuation, and there is good drinking to be had before landfall. You’ll find us having some fun at the bars. I have heard many a great tale of the Night Allison Hit. It probably will go down as one of the single best nights to be out in the bars in Houston ever. Bars started serving drinks for free, people were sleeping on the floors. People walked home in the rain because their cars were either flooded out or trapped. Some good partying was had that night. Me? Well, I was out in Sugar Land, not really giving it a second thought. I ended up going to a friend’s house for dinner, and didn’t really stay all that long. I went to bed thinking about nothing more than what I would want to do in the morning. The next day, I come walking down the stairs, and see trucks floating down a freeway. I asked my dad where that was, and he said, “Houston.” WHAT?!

Allison was just a tropical storm. Actually, as you may know, when a hurricane makes landfall, and causes a good deal of damage, they retire the name from the lists. I’ve heard someone tell me that it is also an insurance thing. In any case, Houston campaigned to get Allison taken off future lists. Today, she is the only storm to have its name retired without reaching hurricane strength.

Dolly really had me thinking last week. I mean, here was a storm hitting the southern tip of Texas, and it goes and dumps a few inches of rain on us over the course of two days. That is real power ladies and gentleman. Again, that was just a dinky little Cat 1. Then we get Edouard, a piddly little swirl of gulf moisture that simply made up its mind to be something, and run straight for us. I suppose the naming of storms is supposed to add some kind of personality to the storm. Oftentimes, the storms fail to produce the fear. Take Edouard for example. I mean, who is Edouard, really? Is he some flaming queen named Edward who changes the spelling of his name to stand out? Is he a greasy thug with a waxed moustache and a Italian cigarette dangling from his lips? Someone said to be last night that they think of a Tango instruction. I suppose that is appropriate. I mean, he does like to twirl the night away, right?

Inevitably, the next storm to come through here is going to be met with a ample amount of skepticism. We’ve been hearing about the BIG ONE for years now. Oh, add that to the list of things to expect. “Houston is overdo for a big storm.” Alicia was in 1983, and apparently conventional wisdom says that we are supposed to get a storm every 10 years or so. I’m starting to think that is all just a bunch of hooey.

Every year, we face the threat of a powerful storm plowing into the Houston area. So does everyone else on the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Californians live with the threat of an earthquake everyday. Hell, Hawaii has volcanoes oozing lava all over the place. No matter where you live, there is a specter of Mother Natures fury waiting in the wings to surprise you. We lucked out today, hell, I got a free day of vacation out of the deal. Still, flooding is happening around Houston as I write this. Some people are going to lose their cars, personal belongings will be damaged and ruined, and a few Hurricane parties will be popping up around town tonight; I got invited to one at So Vino on Facebook this morning. I’d like to go, but I also have to work tomorrow. Hurricane Parties are best when you know you’re staying home the next day.

I hope you aren’t one of the victims of today’s weather. I hope you are smart enough to keep your car out of a flooded street. In any case, there doesn’t appear to be anything of interest in the Atlantic to watch for now. The next name on the list is Fay. After that we have Gustav. I’m pulling for an angry German hurricane, how about you?

After this week’s freakish episode with Humberto, I was keeping an eye out for other developments in the Atlantic. Right now we’re looking at Tropical Storm Ingrid, although she doesn’t appear to give us any reason to worry. What I found interesting was the historical perspective of the “I” storm. One of the more interesting pieces of information you can find at Weather Underground is a historical record of the paths of all named storms.

What I found interesting was that the 1900 storm of local legend was the “I storm” of that year. The weather geek in me was kind of shocked that the 1900 storm plowed through the entire length of Cuba, and still had enough kick to reform into a Category 4 storm before hitting the Texas Coast in the worst possible spot for Houston. Of course, we all know that Galveston was devastated by this particular storm, which remains the deadliest storm in U.S. history.

Anyway, that is just a little bit of weather trivia for you this morning. I don’t know about you, but that Humberto frightened me a little bit. Hurricanes are hard enough to track when we see them coming from thousands of miles away. I don’t think I can handle a world where a cluster of thunderstorms can whip itself into a Category 1 Hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Let it be a lesson to us all that any storm during the hurricane season must be carefully watched, and NEVER ignored. It seems to me that we have really started to ignore the true power of these storms. In a city that was severely damaged by a simple tropical storm, that is pretty foolish.